📡 The Signal Sharpens

 "I have never doubted the truth of signs, Adso; they are the only things man has with which to orient himself in the world." 

• Umberto Eco, "The Name of the Rose"

🤔 El Niño is certain. How strong is the question.

In April, we said to watch for May-June: that is when the atmosphere would either respond to the warm Pacific Ocean or not. The May updates are in. 

El Niño is now effectively certain. NOAA puts the probability above 96% from July onward, holding there through early 2027. La Niña is off the table. 

The atmospheric signals are starting to catch up with the ocean. In April, the ocean was warm but acting alone. Now, wind patterns are weakening and shifting, which is the feedback loop that turns a warm Pacific into a full El Niño. 

What is still unresolved is how strong the event will be. Models agree on the direction but not the magnitude: some project a modest warming, others an extreme one. NOAA's own assessment is that no single intensity category has more than a 1-in-3 chance. The June update, expected around June 11, will be the first real test of whether the atmosphere is amplifying the signal or holding back. 

For South America, the stakes are asymmetric. The same event that raises flood risk across the Pampas and the litoral tends to bring drought to the Andean foothills and the altiplano. Which scenario materializes depends almost entirely on how strong the event gets. 

At Suyana, we are tracking this closely as we finalize trigger design and exposure assessments for the 2026/27 agricultural season. More to come after June. 

👉 Read more in the latest update from our Principal Climate Scientist Daniela Risaro

🇧🇷 Rio de Janeiro Reinsurance Conference

Last week our CEO Rodrigo García attended Rio Reinsurance Week and the Lloyd's Rio Meet the Market event, two of the most important gatherings in the Latin American insurance and reinsurance calendar.

He held meetings with brokers and insurers throughout the week, and one theme came through clearly: the appetite for parametric insurance in Brazil is real, and it is growing. From agribusiness to infrastructure, industry after industry is looking for faster, more transparent coverage than traditional indemnity products can deliver. Satellite-triggered, objective, and settled in days, parametric is a natural fit.

Brazil is a critical market for Suyana. Its scale, its climate exposure, and the sophistication of its insurance ecosystem make it central to our expansion strategy. We are building here for the long term.

There is simply no substitute for being on the ground. Events like these are invaluable for understanding local market dynamics, regulatory nuances, and the specific risk landscapes that shape how insurance actually works in Brazil. Reading about a market is one thing, sitting across the table from the people who live and breathe it every day is another.

 — Rodrigo Garcia, Co-Founder and CEO

🕐 What early warning means for farmers 

The best validation of a product is when farmers themselves talk about what changes when the right tool reaches the right person. That's the story told by Incofin's new documentary, which features Suyana's Early Warning System (EWS) alongside other agtech innovators working with smallholders across Colombia, Peru, and Bolivia.

The EWS was also featured in Incofin's companion report, Advancing Digital Innovation for Smallholder Farmers: What We Learned, which analyzes the lessons from 14 agtech organizations reaching nearly 35,000 farmers across five countries. The takeaway aligns directly with our thesis: distribution partnerships are foundational, simplicity is non-negotiable, and inclusion needs to be designed in from day one, not added later. These are the same principles guiding how we build at Suyana. 🌱

🤝 Investor Spotlight: Aldo Musacchio

We are proud to have Professor Aldo Musacchio as a mentor and investor in Suyana. Aldo is a Professor of International Business at Brandeis International Business School and a Research Associate at the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER). His research focuses on economic development in Latin America, with deep work on state capitalism, sovereign debt, and the history of business in emerging markets. He understands the institutions our customers and partners operate within, and he brings a long-term view of how innovation takes root in the region.

"Latin America has spent decades building financial institutions that can absorb shocks, but climate risk is exposing how much of the real economy still sits outside that safety net. Smallholder farmers, rural cooperatives, and the banks that serve them carry exposure that no balance sheet can quietly absorb. What Suyana is doing matters because it brings credible, affordable protection to where it is most needed, and it does so using technology that can scale across the region."

— Aldo Musacchio, PhD

👥 Meet the team: Carolina Billet 

What happens when you combine a passion for the oceans with real technical depth? You get Carolina Billet, who is collaborating with Suyana on our Sargassum detection work. Carolina is a PhD candidate in Oceanography, and she brings the scientific rigor needed to translate satellite observations into a parametric trigger that coastal communities and businesses can rely on. Sargassum is the latest addition to Suyana's growing portfolio of marine hazard products, built to protect ports and the coastal economies that depend on them.

📍Events

Halcyon LP Summit

Our co-founder and CTO Fernando Yu joined a panel on innovation in insurance at the Halcyon Fund LP Summit in Washington, hosted at Brown Advisory. Moderated by Dahna Goldstein (Halcyon), the conversation covered embedded distribution, parametric models, and the new sources of climate data reshaping how risk gets priced. Fernando shared our view that adaptation is the most underpriced opportunity in climate today, and that the gap between global reinsurance capital and uninsured climate risk in emerging markets is exactly the market Suyana is building.

RIMS Riskworld Philadelphia 2026

Suyana was invited by Lloyd's to participate at RIMS Riskworld in Philadelphia, the largest gathering of risk managers, brokers, and carriers in the US. It was a strong opportunity to present our parametric climate covers and gauge where the market stands on parametric risk transfer. The recurring question was whether parametric can actually scale for climate risk. The short answer is yes, and the appetite from carriers is bigger than it was a year ago. Fernando shared more in this LinkedIn post.

🗽 Join us this week at NY Tech Week!

This week we're at NY Tech Week! Our Co-Founder Fernando Yu is speaking on "The Americas Feeding the Future: AI, Climate & the Next Food Revolution," on Wednesday June 3 at 4pm at the Argentine Consulate in New York.

The premise: by 2050 the world needs 60% more food, and much of that surplus has to come from the Americas. Fernando will talk about how Suyana uses satellite data and AI to protect the farmers and businesses growing it, with payouts that arrive in days, not months. He'll be joined by Matías Nardi (DeepAgro), Nico Reinoso (FFVC), and Mayco Mansilla (Innventure).

👋 If you are in New York, register here and come say hi! 

Contact us if you have questions or feedback.